Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
Probability and Statistics · FE Reference Handbook section
Handbook notes for this section
Definitions and conditions exactly as the handbook states them.
- A random variable X has a probability associated with each of its possible values. The probability is termed a discrete
- probability if X can assume only discrete values, or
Core formulas for this FE topic
Definitions, applicability, units, assumptions and worked examples for each relation.
Worked exam-style examples
The four ways this section is written on the real exam — thoughts first, then equations, then substitution.
A probability and statistics problem uses z-score. Given mean (mu) = 3,460 psi; std deviation (sigma) = 150.0 psi; value (x) = 5,880 psi, determine the z-score (z).
Given
Find
z-score (z)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is z-score.
- Everything except z is given, so isolate z symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- Probability and Statistics items reward recognising the unknown before touching a calculator.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange the relation so that z stands alone on the left-hand side.
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values into the rearranged relation.
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning z = 16.1333 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 32.2667 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 8.0667 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 17.7467 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Reference Handbook — Probability and Statistics → Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
A student finds the expected value of a two-outcome gamble. Given outcome 1 (x1) = 2.5000; probability 1 (p1) = 0.3900; outcome 2 (x2) = 15.0000, determine the expected value (EX).
Given
Find
expected value (EX)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is Expected value of a discrete random variable.
- Everything except EX is given, so isolate EX symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- The expected value of a discrete random variable weights each outcome by its probability.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange symbolically for EX:
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values:
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning EX = 10.1250 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 20.2500 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 5.0625 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 11.1375 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Handbook — Expected Values
A probability and statistics problem uses z-score. Given mean (mu) = 2,890 psi; std deviation (sigma) = 260.0 psi; z-score (z) = -0.1400, determine the value (x) in psi.
Given
Find
value (x), in psi
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is z-score.
- Everything except x is given, so isolate x symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- Probability and Statistics items reward recognising the unknown before touching a calculator.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange the relation so that x stands alone on the left-hand side.
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values into the rearranged relation.
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning x = 2,854 psi to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 5,707 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 1,427 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 3,139 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Reference Handbook — Probability and Statistics → Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
The expected value of a production yield is estimated from probabilities. Given outcome 1 (x1) = 3.5000; probability 1 (p1) = 0.3500; expected value (EX) = 18.3700, determine the outcome 2 (x2).
Given
Find
outcome 2 (x2)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is Expected value of a discrete random variable.
- Everything except x2 is given, so isolate x2 symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- The expected value of a discrete random variable weights each outcome by its probability.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange symbolically for x2:
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values:
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning x2 = 26.3769 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 52.7538 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 13.1885 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 29.0146 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Handbook — Expected Values
A probability and statistics problem uses z-score. Given std deviation (sigma) = 350.0 psi; value (x) = 3,890 psi; z-score (z) = 2.9600, determine the mean (mu) in psi.
Given
Find
mean (mu), in psi
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is z-score.
- Everything except mu is given, so isolate mu symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- Probability and Statistics items reward recognising the unknown before touching a calculator.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange the relation so that mu stands alone on the left-hand side.
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values into the rearranged relation.
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning mu = 2,854 psi to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 5,708 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 1,427 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 3,139 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Reference Handbook — Probability and Statistics → Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
An engineer computes the expected value of a warranty payout distribution. Given outcome 1 (x1) = 3.5000; outcome 2 (x2) = 15.0000; expected value (EX) = 7.3500, determine the probability 1 (p1).
Given
Find
probability 1 (p1)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is Expected value of a discrete random variable.
- Everything except p1 is given, so isolate p1 symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- The expected value of a discrete random variable weights each outcome by its probability.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange symbolically for p1:
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values:
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning p1 = 0.6652 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 1.3304 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 0.3326 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 0.7317 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Handbook — Expected Values
A probability and statistics problem uses z-score. Given mean (mu) = 4,500 psi; value (x) = 1,530 psi; z-score (z) = 1.0400, determine the std deviation (sigma) in psi.
Given
Find
std deviation (sigma), in psi
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is z-score.
- Everything except sigma is given, so isolate sigma symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- Probability and Statistics items reward recognising the unknown before touching a calculator.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange the relation so that sigma stands alone on the left-hand side.
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values into the rearranged relation.
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning sigma = -2,856 psi to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- -5,712 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- -1,428 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- -3,141 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Reference Handbook — Probability and Statistics → Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
A student finds the expected value of a two-outcome gamble. Given outcome 1 (x1) = 8.5000; probability 1 (p1) = 0.4400; outcome 2 (x2) = 20.0000, determine the expected value (EX).
Given
Find
expected value (EX)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is Expected value of a discrete random variable.
- Everything except EX is given, so isolate EX symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- The expected value of a discrete random variable weights each outcome by its probability.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange symbolically for EX:
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values:
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning EX = 14.9400 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 29.8800 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 7.4700 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 16.4340 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Handbook — Expected Values
A probability and statistics problem uses z-score. Given mean (mu) = 4,060 psi; std deviation (sigma) = 510.0 psi; value (x) = 6,910 psi, determine the z-score (z).
Given
Find
z-score (z)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is z-score.
- Everything except z is given, so isolate z symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- Probability and Statistics items reward recognising the unknown before touching a calculator.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange the relation so that z stands alone on the left-hand side.
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values into the rearranged relation.
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning z = 5.5882 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 11.1765 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 2.7941 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 6.1471 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Reference Handbook — Probability and Statistics → Probability Functions, Distributions, and Expected Values
The expected value of a production yield is estimated from probabilities. Given outcome 1 (x1) = 1.0000; probability 1 (p1) = 0.5700; expected value (EX) = 6.4900, determine the outcome 2 (x2).
Given
Find
outcome 2 (x2)
Start with the thinking
- The governing relation printed in this handbook section is Expected value of a discrete random variable.
- Everything except x2 is given, so isolate x2 symbolically first — never rearrange after the numbers are in.
- Tabulate each given with its unit and confirm the units are consistent with the relation before substituting.
- The expected value of a discrete random variable weights each outcome by its probability.
Step-by-step solution
Step 1 — State the governing relation:
Step 2 — Rearrange symbolically for x2:
Step 3
Step 4 — Substitute the given values:
Step 5 — Evaluate:
Step 6 — Check: returning x2 = 13.7674 to
reproduces the given quantities, and both sides carry the same units.
Why the other options are there
- 27.5349 — kept a factor of two that cancels in the correct rearrangement.
- 6.8837 — dropped that same factor in the other direction.
- 15.1442 — rounded an intermediate value before the final step.
Reference: FE Handbook — Expected Values